Strong growth masks curtailment drag; long-term targets remain intact

Overall Q2 revenue ₹4,258 Cr, +41.6% YoY; power supply segment stronger, broader portfolio softer

OPM delivered 89.2%; EBITDA margin likely 91-92% given segment margins cited (92% power supply, 51% EBITDA growth)

Solar CUF dipped to ~23% vs 24.8% prior (180 bps), attributed to Khavda transmission delays; YoY +41.6% growth intact

Currently 6.6 GW installed (Khavda 3 GW commissioned Q2); need 3.4 GW more in 6 months; management sounded committed but execution pace TBD

YoY +16% but QoQ -24% — significant sequential deterioration not disclosed on call; hidden by YoY narrative

Originally expected end-FY27; now Q4 FY27 (likely Jan-Mar 2027). ~1-2 month slip, tied to external transmission grid readiness.

Management reiterated target and added 'will definitely surpass.' Current 6.6 GW with 3.5 GW tied to AESL long-term contract.

₹42,000 Cr through FY30 reaffirmed with no challenges foreseen; no change vs prior guidance.

AGE23L moved to AAA rating (was AA+), saving 20-25 bps on ~15% of EBITDA. Rate environment improved slightly (was 11%, now 8.9% average).

Originally targeted end-FY27 for Phase 3 transmission evacuation (4.5-5 GW). Now expect commissioning by next quarter (Q4). Monitoring closely but execution out of our control.

Fully committed to achieve and surpass 10 GW by year-end. Currently 3.5 GW tied up in long-term contracts; rest in process of tying up. No differentiation between C&I and others in strategy.

72% of loans fixed-rate (3-5 year medium-term horizon). Average rate 8.9% (down from 11% in 2019). Recent AGE23L upgrade to AAA saved 20-25 bps across 15% of EBITDA portfolio.

No differentiation between C&I and other customers. Long-term tie-ups key; looking to install ~10 GW hour annually. Battery ROA of 13-14% on long-term basis, with government and AESL counterparties preferred for 25-year term and credit quality.

Lessons from past: commission projects only when transmission ready. Phase 3 on track for Q4. Battery storage now part of core strategy to de-risk transmission delays. Contingency: alternative sites in Rajasthan. FY30 50 GW target remains firm.

Solar merchant rate: INR 2.1 last year → INR 2.4 this year. Wind: ~INR 4 average last year → INR 3.93 for PPA-based realizations. Better wind yield this year but seasonal variance. CUF impact primarily curtailment-related.

Current leverage 5.6x, moving to 4.5-5x by FY29-30 via amortization. Curtailment impact 3-6 months, not major long-term risk. Capex INR 2.4 lakh crores through FY30 on track with no challenges foreseen.

Currently 3.5 GW tied to AESL. Rest 3.1 GW (total 6.6) in process. Parameters clear: AA+ counterparty minimum, 13-14% ROA, 25-year PPA. Will share allocation when tying up complete.

70% of loans rupee-denominated, 30% dollar. RG2 fully hedged till FY30. RG1 hedged till 2028. Going forward, rolling 3-5 year hedges. Rate hike does not materially impact fixed-rate portfolio.

Roughly divide battery requirement by 4.5-5 to get effective solar. Curtailment happens during peak hours only. 2-2.5 GW solar absorption is reasonable estimate; 1 GW peak storage × 10 hours = 10 GW battery capacity.

Currently 20.8 GW; need 29.2 GW more. ₹42,000 Cr capex plan through FY30 backed by long-term PPAs and project debt. Phase 3 transmission (4.5-5 GW) Q4 FY27 first inflection.

Management tied all BESS and renewable additions to AA+ counterparties on 25-year fixed-price PPAs; hedges interest rate and merchant price risk. Infirm power realization improving (solar ₹2.1 → ₹2.4).

Reaffirmed with no challenges foreseen. Directed towards battery (10 GW/yr), renewable capacity, and transmission infrastructure for 50 GW target.

Phase 3 transmission evacuation capacity at Khavda pushed from end-FY27 to Q4; 4.5-5 GW capacity addition timing uncertainty. Impacts revenue ramp FY28.

Solar CUF dipped to 23% from 24.8% due to transmission constraints at Khavda; 180 bps decline. Persists until Phase 3 evacuation live (Q4 FY27).

28% of loans on floating rates in environment where rates rose from 11% to 8.9% over 7 years. Further tightening could lift cost of capital. Under-construction portfolio (30% of capacity) more exposed.

10 GW battery storage target by FY27 end requires deploying 3.4 GW in ~6 months. Current pace (3.5 GW tied up out of 10 GW target) suggests aggressive timeline. No recent commissioning momentum disclosed beyond Khavda 3 GW.

Q2 PAT ₹747 Cr is -24% QoQ (implied Q1 ₹986 Cr), signaling momentum loss despite +41.6% YoY growth. Not proactively disclosed; suggests execution headwinds or margin compression.