Strong Q2 recovery masks H1 supply chain pain; FTA tailwinds ahead

Delivered ₹1340.6 Cr; YoY ₹1222 Cr = 9.8% growth

Delivered OPM 8.3%; EBITDA likely ~8.8% (implies ₹117.7 Cr EBITDA on ₹1340.6 revenue)

Delivered ₹74.1 Cr PAT (prior ₹24.6 Cr) = 201.8% growth

H1 ₹2284 Cr vs prior ₹2531 Cr = 9.7% decline; Q1 must have been weak while Q2 recovered

Guidance is forward-looking; no executed contribution yet. Project starts CY2027.

Q2 margin 8.8% vs Q2 FY26 6.6% (+220 bps). Management expected margin pressure from new capacity; instead saw operational leverage and product mix improve. H1 margin 9.9% shows consistency.

Net debt ₹852 Cr (Sep 2026) vs ₹1,113 Cr (Mar 2026), a 23.5% reduction. Cash generation strong despite supply chain headwinds; debt-to-equity improved to 1.31 from 2.18.

H1 heavily impacted (-9.7%), Q2 rebounded (+10%). Management views stabilization as near-term; expects volume recovery next year from 4-4.75 lakh tonnes to 4.75+ lakh tonnes as supply normalizes.

Chinese competition weakening (currency depreciation INR12→INR14.5 vs CNY). Anti-dumping duty on PTA/MEG now in force. Management sees structural advantage vs Bangladesh, Vietnam as import-replacement story plays out.

Spreads 6-7% in H1, EBITDA margin 9.9%, expected to be maintained. Raw material increases 40-45% passed to customers; no pressure expected.

China losing competitiveness due to currency depreciation (INR12 vs CNY to INR14.5 now). China exiting commodity business. No significant competitive threat expected going forward.

Gradual 2-3% improvement expected from PTA availability and margin enhancement. Vague on exact savings; focus on industry tailwinds.

Current volume 4-4.75 lakh tonnes, next year 4.75+ lakh tonnes. Revenue difficult to quantify due to commodity pricing volatility. Expect growth with better pricing and capacity ramp.

Not 40% because FY28-29 will have INR225-400+ EBITDA base. Incremental INR100+ crores EBITDA expected from specialty, but timeline uncertain pending Middle East stabilization.

INR200 crore expansion shows intent. Indorama is only integrated polyester player. India's cotton market stagnant 30 years; growth potential in polyester. Room to expand in filament, fiber, PET chips.

Yarn prices INR125-150 range, ramping up production. Gradually approaching 100% on filament and fiber; PET chips at 60%, being increased.

15-30 days inventory, 1-week lag in passing on to customer. Market-based variable pricing, not long-term contracts. Quick pass-through.

Eight quarters running profitable now. Cost optimization, plant debottlenecking, improved product mix support sustainability. Anti-dumping duty on PTA/MEG protects domestic industry. Expect better days ahead.

Portfolio remains same. Specialty yarn and fiber investment adds new production lines, not replaces existing. New capacity for market supply, not internal use.

EU and US FTA agreements unlock export opportunities. Duty advantage 10% vs Bangladesh/Vietnam. Export target back to 20-25% from 6% now. Domestic PTA will be competitive advantage.

Filament 115-120 tpd (cationic, dope dyed, colored), fiber 70 tpd, with new extruders to make small-batch specialty. Capacity phased in as market demand grows.

Raw PTA 5% duty, fiber also 5%, so no change expected. Demand from weaving industry robust; pricing stable. No margin improvement from duty changes.

IOCL plant near customer (Haldia Petrochemicals makes PTA). New plants in Gujarat/Odisha eliminate freight cost disadvantage vs Gujarat industry. Logistics savings 1.5-2% expected.

Definitely targeting double-digit (9.9% currently). Should not go down. If raw material prices come down and capacity ramps, double-digit achievable. Dependent on PTA availability and margins.

Minimum 3-4 years for environment clearance, electricity approval, water connectivity. No polyester capacity in pipeline currently beyond INR200 crore specialty expansion.

Current 4-4.75 lakh tonnes; growth from capacity ramp-up and utilization improvement. Commodity pricing volatility makes exact revenue projection difficult.

Assumes CY2027 execution, market demand materialization, and stable pricing. Conditional on geopolitical stability and export tariff benefits.

H1 achieved 9.9%; management confident in spread stability despite commodity volatility. Raw material pass-through working.

Dependent on PTA plant performance, specialty project execution, and absence of geopolitical shocks. 20% EBITDA uplift from specialty is upside.

Approved by parent Indorama. Funding via term loans and internal accruals. Payback <2 years expected.

Growth capex done; focus on optimizing existing asset base. No major greenfield capacity projects on horizon.

Strait of Hormuz instability, West Asia tensions impacting PTA supply availability, freight costs, and insurance. H1 suffered 9.7% revenue decline due to supply chain; recovery uncertain.

INR200 crore specialty expansion starting CY2027 is unproven. Execution risk on timeline, cost control, and achieving 15% revenue and 20% EBITDA uplift targets.

Government targeting 5.5M tons PTA capacity addition (GAIL, IOC, Reliance) starting CY2027-28. Delays or issues could extend import dependence and keep margins under pressure.

PTA, MEG, crude oil prices volatile. While pass-through mechanism works (15-30 day lag), sustained high commodity prices could exceed customer tolerance for price hikes.

Government imposed anti-dumping duty on PTA and MEG to protect domestic polyester industry. Withdrawal would open market to cheaper imports and pressure margins.