Strong revenue growth masked by margin collapse; near-term headwinds

Revenue up 32.3% YoY, but PAT grew only 2.8% YoY; margin compression evident

PAT up only 2.8% YoY and down 20.6% QoQ; EBITDA margin 19.1% vs prior guidance of 24-25%

One pellet plant now shut; pellet production guidance being revised lower; mining impacted by dumping space

Beneficiation commission from Q3; ramp to full mining capacity only Q4 FY28; margin relief pushed to FY28

Prior guidance included steel plant; now removed from investor presentation—this is a withdrawal

Water allocation approval delayed 6-8 months. Steel plant removed from Vision 2030 investor presentation. Management now calls it 'optional' for medium-term growth, not core strategy.

Guidance of 4.0 MT likely to be revised lower. One 2 MT plant shut ~45 days and management signals Q2 also subdued. Q3 onwards expected to ramp, but FY27 full-year cut is now imminent.

CapEx increased from ₹900-950 Cr to ₹1,100 Cr (+15-20%) due to land and standalone infra costs in Maharashtra. But margins improved: 7-8% base → 10-11% with incentives (2-3% uplift from state incentives).

Q1 actual 19.1% vs prior guidance of 24-25%. Management expects recovery from Q4 FY27 post-beneficiation, but current quarter miss is significant. Margin compression from input cost (iron ore, coal) not adequately guided.

Ramp-up from Q3, not Q1. Full capacity mining with 100% captive ore only by FY28. Cost savings of ₹1,000/ton transport, target mining cost below ₹2,700 by FY28 (currently ₹3,000-₹3,500).

Water allocation approval is bottleneck (6-8 month delay). Keep it as medium-term option, not committed. Vision 2030 targets (4x revenue, 3x EBITDA) now exclude steel plant.

Local consumption in auto hub saves transport. Margin improvement 2-3% from Maharashtra incentives. CRM margin target moves from 7-8% to 10-11% with incentives.

Q2: same low levels. Q3: ramp begins. Q4: gradual decline in merchant ore (25-30% to <10%). FY28: 100% captive target. Full capacity from Q4 FY27 or early Q1 FY28.

No, 3.4 MT is usable ore for pellets, very much on track. Beneficiation is input-side cost reduction, not volume change.

100% gas available, but PNGRB guidelines increased purchase cost 40-45%. Makes pellet production commercially unviable. At ₹8,700 pellet prices (July low) and current gas costs, operation not viable.

Will hover USD90-USD100. Simandou takes time to ramp. India demand growing. Don't see below USD90 soon. Port-based plants importing, supporting prices.

Mining cost target below ₹2,700 (from ₹3,000-3,500). ₹100 ore savings = ₹45-50 Cr EBITDA on 5-6 MT. Pellet at full 4.5 MT capacity from FY28. Two major drivers.

Allowed to sell 50% at 150% royalty (lump) and 250% (fines). Delta in pellets INR4, iron ore INR1 after royalty. Commercially no sense to sell ore near-term unless pellet <INR8,000.

Lower mining production (dumping space constrained); fixed costs spread thin. Diesel impact also. Cost will drop once capacity achieved. Mainly volume issue, not structural.

New plant ran at full capacity Q1; three plants operated. Additional pellet sales because captive DRI consumption constant. All extra pellets sold merchant. Demand dull end-June, early July; recovered last 2-3 weeks.

Not revised yet, still evaluating. Expect volumes slightly lower. Will inform investors once final guidance ready. One plant shut ~45 days.

Iron ore: 75% of increase (market procurement). Imported coal: 25% (₹10,500→₹13,000). Domestic coal stable. Q2 will be higher, then moderate.

No clarity on force majeure timeline. GAIL supplier has no guidelines. Evaluating third plant. August likely shutdown; September possible restart. No visibility.

Partial sale to promoters. No succession planning; operational difficulty in Jammu/Kota. Still deciding on strategy (increase, exit, or hold). No timeline.

Documents being prepared. Beneficiation plant trials underway. TOFR filing after finalization. Expansion expected April 2030 (FY31). Current 0.7 MT → target 4 MT by FY31. Yield ~40%, usable ore 1.5-2 MT.

Tied up domestic EMS and PCS (20% Made in India requirement met). Quoting containers from August. Participating in tenders via back-to-back guarantee model with developers.

Plans exist but only after 100% captive mining (quality-specific for DR). Will happen in FY28 once full mining capacity achieved. Higher premiums justify entry.

CapEx up 15-20% due to land (₹50 Cr, 35 acres) and standalone infra in Maharashtra. Earlier had cost absorption from steel plant common infra. Working capital also included in ₹1,100 Cr.

Will decide after CRM and BESS capex complete and steel plant clarity. Currently funding current projects from internal accruals; no additional debt needed.

Q1 ₹1,750.5 Cr annualizes to ~₹7,000 Cr run rate. On track. No formal revision announced.

Q1 actual 19.1% vs guidance. Management expects recovery from Q4 FY27 post-beneficiation commissioning. Credibility on margin guidance significantly impaired.

CRM ₹1,000 Cr remaining (from ₹1,100 Cr total minus ₹80 Cr spent), BESS ₹700-800 Cr remaining (from total spent ~₹501 Cr), mining expansion. Steel plant shelved.

Dumping ground tree-cutting approval pending. Mining production remains low through Q2. Full capacity only Q4 FY27/Q1 FY28 (vs earlier guidance Q3 ramp).

Pellet prices hit COVID low ₹8,700 (July); currently ₹9,000-10,000. Gas costs up 40-45% due to West Asia crisis. At current prices, pellet plant operation commercially unviable.

Iron ore 75%, imported coal 25% of Q1 cost increase. Iron ore from market ₹1,000+/ton premium vs captive. Imported coal ₹13,000/ton (up from ₹10,500).

CRM relocation to Maharashtra delays ramp by ~6 months vs original Chhattisgarh plan. Beneficiation Q3 (not Q1). BESS full production Q1 FY28.

Integrated steel plant (1 MT) put on hold indefinitely due to water allocation delays. Removed from Vision 2030 investor presentation. Represents material guidance withdrawal.