US tariff recovery masks weak profit growth; capacity crunch limits near-term
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade B
On track to meet FY25 margin target (8%) by Q4 FY27; US recovery guidance being tracked; Narmadapuram timeline maintained.
Cautiously Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Operational momentum solid (revenue +17.4%, margins recovering 320 bps YoY) but profit growth weak (PAT +6.5%) and NPM compressed to 3.7%, signalling quality concerns. Capacity at ceiling limits near-term; Narmadapuram ramp-up in FY28 is the inflection, but timeline and execution risk warrant caution.
₹529.4 Cr
Revenue · +17.4% YoY₹19.7 Cr
Reported PAT · +6.5% YoYExpanding
Margins · vs guidance: MixedDid the claims hold up?
One of strongest quarters on record with healthy improvement
OVERSTATEDRevenue +17.4% YoY solid, but PAT +6.5% YoY weak; NPM compressed to 3.7%
Strong across all metrics
MISSOperating margin +320 bps YoY but PAT growth lags revenue growth
Export recovery strong with ₹155 Cr in Q1, up 77% QoQ
METCorrect; exports ₹155 Cr vs ₹87 Cr Q4 FY26, though baseline was tariff-suppressed
Order book healthy uptick to ₹615 Cr from ₹583 Cr
PartialOnly 5.5% growth; export order book at ₹97 Cr remains small relative to shipment
Targeting ₹700-800 Cr US exports for full FY27
METQ1 run rate ₹155 Cr; 4x would be ₹620 Cr, so ₹700-800 requires acceleration
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Export visibility improved
UpgradeQ1 exports ₹155 Cr vs ₹87 Cr Q4 FY26 post-IEEPA resolution; normalization underway after tariff-suppressed prior period
Margin target timeline confirmed
MaintainedFY25 EBITDA margin (8%) targeted by Q4 FY27 as stated in prior call; tracking on plan; current 7.1% (incl. other income)
Narmadapuram capex incurred
Neutral₹30 Cr+ spent to date; ₹65 Cr earmarked from ₹122 Cr equity raise; no overruns flagged but timeline risk remains
Domestic business acceleration
UpgradeDomestic B2B industrial grew 92% YoY to ₹296 Cr; power cables remain 57% of revenue, driven by infrastructure/grid investment
Order book growth muted
Downgrade₹615 Cr vs ₹583 Cr (5.5% growth); exports orders only ₹97 Cr despite ₹155 Cr Q1 shipments; management deliberate but risky
The Q&A
Analysts pressed hard on export order book thinness, margin sustain ability, and Narmadapuram execution risk. Management held firm on strategy (preferring lower orders at better margins) and timeline, but acknowledged past tariff shock still healing. No major concessions.
EBITDA margin recovery — Suraj, YES Securities
AnsweredQ1 is fully in line with expectations. 6.6% operating margin is meaningful progress. By end of FY27 (Q4), expect to achieve FY25 levels (8%). Drivers: US normalization, favorable power cable mix, exports at 29%+.
Narmadapuram capex timeline — Bhavya, Share India
AnsweredMost critical machinery ordered in advance, on schedule. Civil mobilization started. Major construction within 6-7 months on internal timeline. Expect partial Q1 FY28 operations. No major overruns expected, only normal variations.
Narmadapuram capex and funding — Bhavya, Share India
Answered₹30 Cr+ spent to date; from internal accruals and ₹122 Cr equity raise. No debt taken yet; targeting term loan later. Post-completion debt-equity below 0.3x.
Narmadapuram capacity utilization — Bhavya, Share India
Answered₹1,200 Cr in FY29 expected at ~75% capacity utilization.
Export order book thinness — Prathamesh Sawant, Abakkus Investment
AnsweredDeliberate. After tariff shock, we and distributors more cautious. Steady pipeline; no pressure to build large order book. Distributors now taking tariff pass-through, reducing risk. No bottleneck concerns. Confident of ₹700-800 Cr exports FY27 without large order book.
Export margins and order book risk — Prathamesh Sawant, Abakkus Investment
AnsweredTill FY25, exports were 1.5% higher margin vs domestic. FY26 all changed; we had negative EBITDA on US exports due to tariffs. Now improving. Paramount can pivot fast; shown this twice. FY22: 22% exports; FY23: 50% (₹400 Cr); FY24: 26% as demand fell but domestic doubled. Will keep improving gradually. Not a margin downside risk.
Current capacity utilization — Prathamesh Sawant, Abakkus Investment
AnsweredPractically 100% throughout. Been investing continuously; every machine producing from day one. Problem is manufacturing not selling. Capacity constrained.
Top-line growth expectations — Jigar Jani, Nuvama
AnsweredFY27 expect 15-20% roughly; existing plants up to the neck. Next year (post-Narmadapuram), much faster pace. Target ₹5,000 Cr by FY31; hope to better it. Historically grown 30%, 35%, 40% per year; problem always capacity.
Margin guidance confirmation — Jigar Jani, Nuvama
AnsweredYes. Gradual improvement in US market. Domestic steady. Stabilization ongoing. By Q4 FY27, expect FY25 levels (8%).
Metal throughput — Jigar Jani, Nuvama
PartialRoughly 29,000 tons last year Q1. Q1 FY27 approximately 4% increase year-on-year.
Optical fiber and new products — Siddartha Venkatesh, Vayu Capital
PartialNot largest player; competitors have reverse integration (making glass). High capex model. Data center boom is golden phase; we see demand and will participate. Some specific items we not yet doing. Our driver remains power cables and specialized conductors (HTLS). Already ₹100 Cr HTLS business in hand.
New US product launches — Nikhil Kanodia, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredTill now exporting cables up to 600 volts; largest exporter from India to US. Now adding solar cables (higher than 600V), big market due to renewable investment. Some data center products held with approvals; fructifying into direct demand. Quality already has traction in US for 4-5 years.
EHV cable timelines — Nikhil Kanodia, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredApproved up to 66 KV. 132 KV will need production sample; approvals expected within 1 year, possibly 6-8 months. End of FY28 expect approvals; by FY29 should have all. Also exploring 220 KV, 400 KV.
Narmadapuram revenue potential — Nikhil Kanodia, Sunidhi Securities
Answered₹1,200 Cr is initial 4x multiple expected. But 4x never actual; happens at 5.5x, 6x over time as small additions drive revenue. End of day, expect steady 5.5x, 6x multiples after Phase 2.
E-Beam cable plans — Nikhil Kanodia, Sunidhi Securities
AnsweredE-Beam definitely part of Phase 1 (₹300 Cr capex). Longer gestation product; higher barrier to entry; higher margin accretive. By end FY29 hope for most major certifications; major certs start 1 year after for defense, railways, shipbuilding niche.
US export run rate — Mandira, Individual Investor
Answered₹155 Cr Q1 FY27; 4x would be ₹620 Cr but should do better. Expecting ₹700-800 Cr FY27. New products (solar) margins similar to current, may grow as demand strengthens.
Competitive landscape in US — Mandira, Individual Investor
AnsweredMajor competitors: South Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia. Egypt, Ecuador, Turkey emerging. Last year we worst hit: faced 25%+, 50%+ duty vs competitors at 10-18%. Had pipeline of orders finished in factory, 2 months at sea. Navigated through that.
Aluminium hedging policy — Saloni Shah, Individual Investor
AnsweredNo firm price orders beyond 3-4 months delivery. Book metal next working day after order. Practically zero risk in theory; reality some +/- happen. Variable price orders protected but variations occur. Do not take metal risk as policy for many years.
Working capital cycle — Saloni Shah, Individual Investor
AnsweredTargeting 90-100 days. Q1 at 96 days. Gradually expect to keep within that level. Receivables normalized to 64 days from 79 days end March.
Guidance
FY27 revenue growth 15-20% broadly
HighExisting plants at 100% utilization; capacity constraint limits upside; Narmadapuram not yet ramping
Full year FY27 US exports ₹700-800 Cr
HighQ1 ₹155 Cr run rate; tariff normalization confirmed; but small export order book warrants caution
Narmadapuram FY28 ₹500 Cr, FY29 ₹1,200 Cr revenue
MediumPartial Q1 FY28 start targeted; 75% utilization assumed for FY29 target; construction/machinery timeline risk
EBITDA margin 8% (FY25 level) by Q4 FY27
MediumCurrently 7.1% incl. other income, 6.6% operating excl. other income; US recovery and power cable mix driving
Narmadapuram margins initially 9-10%, targeting double-digit within 3-4 years
MediumPlan is in place but EHV ramp timeline uncertain; capacity utilization at 75% creates headroom for margin upside
Narmadapuram Phase 1 capex ~₹300 Cr (partial)
High₹30 Cr+ spent to date; ₹65 Cr from equity raise earmarked; internal accruals and term loan to follow
Debt-equity post-Narmadapuram Phase 1 below 0.3x
HighCurrently 0.15x; net worth strengthened to ₹894 Cr from ₹778 Cr; comfortable trajectory
Risks the call surfaced
Execution risk on Narmadapuram
HighGreenfield facility in Madhya Pradesh; machinery on order with long lead times; civil construction started but subject to delays. Q1 FY28 partial ops target could slip to Q2 or later, pushing ₹500 Cr FY28 revenue out of reach.
Export order book thinness
MediumExports ₹155 Cr in Q1 but order book only ₹97 Cr; management deliberately keeping it small post-tariff shock to protect margins. If US demand slows or order cadence breaks, H2 FY27 export volume could retrace faster than domestic can offset.
US tariff or trade policy reversal
HighIEEPA tariff invalidation by US Supreme Court is key driver of Q1 recovery; 29% of revenue now comes from exports to US. Any new tariff/trade friction could quickly erode margins and volumes (as demonstrated by FY26 negative EBITDA on US exports).
Capacity constraint
MediumExisting plants (Dharuhera, Khushkhera) at ~100% utilization; cannot grow faster than 15-20% in FY27 until Narmadapuram adds capacity in FY28. Any market upside in H2 FY27 cannot be captured; risk of losing share to competitors or customers pivoting.
Profit quality deterioration
MediumPAT grew only 6.5% YoY while revenue grew 17.4% YoY; NPM compressed to 3.7% from historical ~4.5-5%. Operating leverage not flowing to bottom line; suggests cost pressures, product mix headwinds, or one-off charges masking underlying earnings power.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear on financial metrics and strategy; provided detail on capex, order book policy, and export dynamics. Some evasion on optical fiber and E-Beam gestation timelines (said longer gestation without specifics). Mixed. Met Narmadapuram timeline to date (₹30 Cr spent, Q1 FY28 partial ops on track). Margin recovery (320 bps YoY) tracking guidance. But PAT growth (6.5%) significantly lags revenue (17.4%), raising execution quality questions.
1 · Q4 FY27 (Mar 2027)
Return to FY25 EBITDA margin levels (~8%); validates margin recovery thesis
2 · Q1 FY28 (Jun 2027)
Narmadapuram partial operations commence; ₹500 Cr revenue target starting point
3 · FY28 & FY29
Narmadapuram scales to ₹1,200 Cr; Capex risk if delays or cost overruns emerge
Capacity at ceiling limits near-term; Narmadapuram ramp-up in FY28 is the inflection, but timeline and execution risk warrant caution.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.