Growth outpaces guidance, but cost inflation caps upside near-term
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Hold
confidence 6/10
Grade A
Beat FY27 credit growth (24.7% vs 12-14% guide), NIM (3.19% vs 2.8-2.9%), deposit growth (14.4% vs 10-12%). Narrowly missed CIR (50.39% vs <50%).
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Optimistic
multi-year
Q2 delivered strong PAT growth (+26.8% YoY) and beat advance/deposit guidance by wide margins (24.7% vs 12-14%), with NIM exceeding target. However, cost-to-income ratio at 50.39% narrowly missed guidance, and slippages rose seasonally. Management is confident but prudent—holding guidance despite Q2 beat. The rally is real but near-term margin pressure and execution risk on cost control cap upside.
₹7286.3 Cr
Revenue · +11.5% YoY₹785.6 Cr
Reported PAT · +26.8% YoYFlat
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
Net profit ₹786 Cr, growth 26.77% YoY
METDelivered PAT 785.6 Cr, YoY growth 26.8%
Advances growth 24.70%, exceeds 12-14% guidance
METAdvances ₹2,87,690 Cr, growth 24.70% YoY, well above guidance
NIM maintained at 3% global, 3.19% domestic
METDomestic NIM 3.19% exceeds guidance of 2.8-2.9%
Cost-to-income ratio 50.39%, guidance <50%
OVERSTATEDCIR 50.39%, marginally misses <50% target by 39 bps
GNPA 1.96%, net NPA 0.18%, below targets
METGNPA 1.96% (vs <2% FY27 target), NGNPA 0.18%, on track
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Advances growth
UpgradeQ1 implicit 10-12% guidance beaten at Q2 with 24.7% YoY; broad-based (Retail +30%, Agri +30%, MSME +20%).
NIM outlook
UpgradeGuidance 2.8-2.9% exceeded at 3.19% domestic (3.0% global); 66% of advances EBLR-linked to benefit from rate hikes.
Cost control trajectory
DowngradeCIR guidance <50% missed at 50.39%; cited expansion costs (27 new branches, CBDC, RPA, digital marketing). Plan to return below 50% in FY27.
Asset quality
NeutralGNPA 1.96%, on track to <2% March 2027 target. Net NPA 0.18%, well below 0.25% plan by March 2027.
The Q&A
Analysts pressed on guidance revision (Choksey argued 24.7% growth warrants upward revision from 12-14%), but MD held firm—citing Board approval and prudence. On cost inflation, MD acknowledged but framed as temporary expansion phase. On slippages, analysts probed detail; MD provided granular agri/non-agri split and explained seasonal marking. Overall, management defended positions with data; few questions went unanswered.
TWO recovery rates — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
AnsweredNormalized recovery of ₹301 Cr in Q2; Q1 had one-off ₹785 Cr recovery. Going forward, expect ₹300 Cr quarterly run-rate. Accounts already recovered.
Treasury yield pressure — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
PartialYields hardening globally and in India; treasury profitability under pressure. But 66% of advances are EBLR-linked; repo rate hikes passed through immediately. NII growth will more than compensate. Limited FVTPL treasury portfolio; hedged downside.
Slippage analysis — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
AnsweredSlippages up due to September agri marking cycle (crop loans marked annually). Agri ₹205 Cr, non-agri ₹344 Cr. Half-year vs half-year comparison shows improvement vs prior year Sept (March-Sept 2024 vs 2025). Overall asset quality maintained.
SMA 1 trend — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
AnsweredSMA 1 at 0.42% of advances; YoY improvement from 0.77%. Movements are cyclical; manageable. No abnormality; within expected variance for a growing portfolio.
Deposit rate repricing — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
PartialDeposit repricing lags advance repricing (external benchmark linking). As advances EBLR-linked already increased, deposits will reprice on renewal. No immediate pressure; rate increase passed on. Gradual repricing expected.
Corporate credit strategy — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
AnsweredBoth. RAM growth strong (Retail +30%, Agri +30%, MSME +20%). Corporate also grown 24% YoY. ₹10,000 Cr sanction pipeline for corporates. Targeting balanced growth across all segments; will maintain RAM at 65%.
Operating expenses — Ashok Ajmera, Analyst
AnsweredNormal growth. Branch expansion, IT solutions, infrastructure investments, and transaction volume growth drive costs. Operating expenses reflect true growth picture. No abnormal one-offs. Trend expected to continue.
ECL provisioning impact — Ashlesh, Analyst
AnsweredECL requirement ₹3,200 Cr; already provisioned ₹2,500 Cr. Covered 70% upfront. No material gap. Small changes due to advances growth, but manageable. Already provided for in results.
Gold loan yield — Ashlesh, Analyst
AnsweredNo significant change in gold loan yield. Maintained as last quarter. If EBLR-linked gold loans, repo hike will automatically increase yield to ~9% (vs prior 9% baseline).
Guidance revision upside — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
DodgedGuidance 12-14% set at year-start by Board. Don't change during year. Last year also grew beyond initial guidance. Will review after Q2. Confident to grow more than guidance, but won't revise now. 24.7% is near 25% quarterly—unsustainable long-term.
Retail housing growth drivers — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
PartialMixed growth. Both volume (more borrowers) and ticket size improvement (from ₹35 Lakh to ₹45 Lakh avg). Housing +20% YoY driven by both factors. Can't precisely bifurcate, but both contributing.
Second-hand car financing — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
DodgedProduct exists but not separately analyzed. Very small portion of car loan portfolio. Will work out exact position and come back. Yield will be higher (100-150 bps) as noted.
NII growth compensation — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
AnsweredYes. 66% of advances EBLR-linked. Repo hike passes through immediately. NII growth will more than compensate for treasury losses. Limited FVTPL portfolio; hedged. Under control.
Written-off recovery outlook — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
AnsweredBig accounts mostly recovered. Focus now on residual TWO portfolio (smaller accounts). Will use SARFAESI, OTS, NDND, OTS schemes. ₹300 Cr quarterly run-rate expected going forward.
International expansion contribution — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
AnsweredHong Kong, Singapore running well. GIFT City just started. Opportunities exist for each branch. Will take advantage of GIFT City taxation benefits. Expect reasonable growth from all 3 centers.
Merger speculation — Sushil Choksey, Analyst
DodgedResult timing internal, based on auditor availability and limited review process. No speculation warranted. Nothing in the pipeline as of now.
Agri slippage composition — Amit Mishra, Analyst
AnsweredAgri slippage ₹205 Cr (up from ₹73 Cr in June, +₹132 Cr QoQ) due to Sept marking. Non-agri ₹344 Cr. YoY: Agri still lower (Sept 2025 ₹238 Cr vs Sept 2026 ₹205 Cr = improvement).
Provisioning and credit cost — Amit Mishra, Analyst
AnsweredCredit cost 0.65% (vs guidance <0.75%). ECL provisioning ₹570 Cr this quarter. NPA provision increased for ECL forward-looking provisioning. Will maintain below 0.75% for full year.
Cost-to-income normalization — Amit Mishra, Analyst
AnsweredCIR 50.39% after removing one-off recovery effect (was 45% in June). Expected to maintain ~50% for full year. Will bring below 50% in coming quarters. Prior year Sept was 52.79%, so improving trend.
Guidance
FY27 advances growth 12-14% (reaffirmed, already at 24.7% in Q2)
HighBroad-based growth from Retail, Agri, MSME, and ₹10K Cr corporate sanction pipeline. Target to maintain growth above guidance.
NIM maintain 2.8-2.9% (delivered 3.19% domestic, 3.0% global)
HighEBLR-linked advances (66%) benefit from repo hikes; will sustain NIM beyond guidance despite treasury stress.
Cost-to-income <50% (delivered 50.39%, plans to correct in H2)
MediumCIR inflation from expansion (27 branches, CBDC, RPA, digital marketing). Will bring below 50% for full year.
Risks the call surfaced
Deposit repricing
MediumAdvances linked to EBLR; deposits repricing on renewal only. Repo hike lag benefit but medium-term funding cost pressure.
Asset quality volatility
LowSlippages ₹549 Cr (Sept 2026) vs ₹428 Cr (June 2026); ₹205 Cr from agri marking. YoY improved vs ₹629 Cr in Sept 2025.
Cost inflation
MediumCIR 50.39% vs <50% guidance. 27 new branches, CBDC, RPA, digital marketing, IT investments driving cost growth.
Competitive deposit pressure
MediumDeposit growth 14.4% is respectable but tightening liquidity and RBI policy shifts may require higher rate offers. CASA ratio declining.
International expansion early stage
Low3 international centers opened; GIFT City just launched. Revenue contribution minimal. Regulatory/compliance overhead.
Management
Score 7/10. Clear, data-driven. MD provided specific numbers on recoveries (₹301 Cr), slippages (₹205 Cr agri), ECL (₹2.5K Cr). Addressed tough questions on cost and deposits. Honest on CIR miss. Beat FY27 advance (24.7% vs 12-14%), deposit (14.4% vs 10-12%), and NIM (3.19% vs 2.8-2.9%) guidance. Narrowly missed CIR (50.39% vs <50%). Track record credible; assets quality improving.
1 · Q3-Q4 FY27
Cost-to-income control; confirm sub-50% exit guidance
2 · FY27 close
Full-year guidance review; potential upward revision on 12-14% base
3 · April 2027
ECL transition provisioning (₹2,500 Cr estimate already booked)
The rally is real but near-term margin pressure and execution risk on cost control cap upside.
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.