Strong YoY growth masks seasonal weakness; FY27 PAT beat in sight
The verdict, the claims that held up, the sharpest analyst exchanges, and the risks — the earnings call, decoded from the transcript.
Buy
confidence 8/10
Grade A
H1 tracking 40.3% of ~₹240B pre-sales guidance; FY27 PAT expected to beat 20% growth.
Optimistic
next 1–2 quarters
Very Optimistic
multi-year
Strong YoY growth (+28.3% PAT, +17.6% revenue) with H1 tracking at ₹2,386 Cr PAT (63% YoY), on course to beat ~₹4,000 Cr FY27 guidance. Multi-year drivers in place: new markets (Bangalore ₹1,800 Cr Q2 presales), BTS data center (₹150B+ investment), geographic expansion. Risk: execution on simultaneous launches, macro headwinds (interest rates, geopolitical), and H2 lumpiness (lumpy land deals).
₹4467.4 Cr
Revenue · +17.6% YoY₹1013.5 Cr
Reported PAT · +28.3% YoYCompressing
Margins · vs guidance: CorroboratedDid the claims hold up?
H1 PAT up 63%, beating guidance
METQ2 PAT ₹1013.5 Cr (+28.3% YoY); H1 ₹2,386 Cr (+63% YoY), on track to exceed ~₹4,000 Cr FY27 target
H1 revenue up 30%
METQ2 revenue ₹4,467.4 Cr (+17.6% YoY); H1 ₹9,460 Cr (+30% YoY) per mgmt
Pre-sales ₹96 billion up 7%
METH1 pre-sales ₹96 billion = 40.3% of full-year ~₹240 billion run rate, tracking 40–42% guidance
Bangalore launch delivered significant success, ₹1,800 Cr presales in Q2
METBangalore presales ₹1,800 Cr in Q2; one of the largest projects launched for company. Sustained growth planned for H2 with ₹3,000 Cr H1 Bangalore run rate.
Profitability improving, expect margin expansion
METQ2 NPM 22.1% vs OPM 33.3%; mgmt claims no land sales in Q2 (clean dev business PAT) & underlying profitability getting better via cost discipline (4% cost growth vs 6% price growth). YoY PAT growth of 28.3% exceeds revenue growth of 17.6%, indicating margin expansion YoY.
QoQ PAT decline due to lack of land sales, not underlying business weakness
METQ2 PAT ₹1,013.5 Cr (-26.2% QoQ). Mgmt explicitly states no land sales in Q2. Q1 must have included land transaction. Development business alone is solid.
Earnings quality
What changed since the last call
Bangalore presales momentum
UpgradeQ2 Bangalore presales ₹1,800 Cr (highest ever in single quarter per CEO). Prior call had cautious Bangalore ramp; now established as premium growth hub with ₹3,000 Cr H1 run rate.
PAT guidance confidence
UpgradeManagement now says 'easily beat' 20% PAT growth guidance (~₹4,000 Cr FY27). H1 at ₹2,386 Cr suggests H2 only needs ₹1,614 Cr to hit 20%; expected to exceed.
Data center BTS strategy
NewMulti-hundred MW transaction in land closures expected Q4, construction starting FY27. Management received govt support recognition. 5 GW target by FY30/32; ₹150B+ investment potential.
Guruugram NCR launch cadence
NewFirst NCR presales just started this quarter. Two more residential projects planned pilot phase; full commercial office strategy via Sohna Road launch (early days).
Construction cost inflation expectation
MaintainedCarries 10% contingency; 3% project revenue contingency. Sees oil price impact selective; not expecting >1% major inflation, largely absorbed.
Pre-sales guidance for full year
MaintainedH1 at ₹96 Bn (40.3% of ~₹240 Bn FY27 target), matching 40–42% guidance. No change to full-year run rate or H2 outlook.
Moderate Q&A pressure on launch guidance reduction (₹25,100 Cr guidance → ₹23,100 Cr, noted in slides), data center deal size (dodged specifics, multi-hundred MW only), and PAT upward revision (management deferred quantification). Management held line on 20% beat guidance and pre-sales trajectory; analysts probed interest rate sensitivity (Lodha calm, cites premium segment resilience) and geographic concentration (transitioning to diversified model). No evasion on fundamentals; confident tone.
Guidance
1 · Q3 & Q4 FY27
₹6,000–7,000 Cr dev company presales expected; land transactions; Palava Mulund-Airoli-Palava Freeway infrastructure boost
2 · Calendar 2027
Guruugram NCR project ramp-up post pilot; Bangalore expansion; Palava presales uptick from connectivity
3 · FY28 onward
BTS data center land transaction (multi-hundred MW scale). First definitive docs in FY27, construction & rental earnings from FY29.
Risk: execution on simultaneous launches, macro headwinds (interest rates, geopolitical), and H2 lumpiness (lumpy land deals).
Informational and educational content only. Not investment advice.